There is reason for cautious optimism -- that is the message from BC Health Officials today after releasing modelling on the coronavirus' spread in this province.
During a slide presentation to reporters Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry says we aren't out of the woods yet, but cautiously suggests the curve may start to flatten a bit in BC:
" And we are trending up, clearly, and we know that because we've had new cases every day, and those have increased in the last couple of weeks. But we are maybe starting to bend a little bit."
Dr. Henry says there is a "slight chance of optimism" that our rate of growth is being impacted by the measures implemented in the last couple of weeks.
She says right now BC has 130 cases per million population. If we had continued on the same trajectory that we had been on on March 14 we would have expected to have 215 cases per million population.
She emphasizes that modelling involves estimations, which can change -- adding everything depends on continued observation of protection measures.
She also issued a new order regarding Farmers markets. They can only sell food, no other products for now. Henry says it's important in this health crisis to have access to healthy locally-grown foods.The BC Association of Farmers Markets (BCAFM) has announced it will move to online sales to stay connected to customers during this pandemic.
Meantime the modelling also helped the BC Government understand what they would need to do in a worst case scenario, that is, if the COVID19 outbreak worsens as it did in China and Northern Italy.
Health Minister Adrian Dix says if BC started experiencing a Northern Italy-type trajectory, the province would be short close to 1,780 acute care beds, and every provincial health authority would be overwhelmed by demand.
The Vancouver Island health region would be short 214 beds; Fraser Health short 824 beds; Vancouver Coastal Health region would be down 258 acute care beds; Interior Health region would be short 397 beds; Northern Health would would need 143 additional acute care beds.
Dix says although health officials hope for the best they must prepare for the worst, which is why they have cancelled elective surgeries, are clearing hospital beds, and moving ventilators around the province. Officials are also coordinating with the BC Ambulance Service in case a significant mobilization of patients is required.
Asked about ventilator supply, Dr. Bonnie Henry says we won't know if there are enough until the outbreak runs its course. But she told reporters it's believed the strategy of moving patients and ventilators will give sufficient coverage for now.
Meantime both Dr. Henry and Health Minister Dix say it's vital to continue observing social/physical distancing, hand washing and staying at home to flatten of the curve, and we should know more about the impact of that in a week or two.